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User Manual Table of Contents TradeMiner Pro Theory................................................................................................................................. 3 Step 1: Search ............................................................................................................................................... 4 User Inputs ................................................................................................................................................ 4 Results Window ........................................................................................................................................ 9 Charts ...................................................................................................................................................... 11 Step 2: Neural Network .............................................................................................................................. 14 Neural Network Prediction Model .......................................................................................................... 14 Step 3: Portfolio .......................................................................................................................................... 23 Pick List.................................................................................................................................................... 23 Portfolio .................................................................................................................................................. 23 Step 4: Accounting ...................................................................................................................................... 26 Settings Tab................................................................................................................................................. 27 Education Tab ............................................................................................................................................. 28 Risk Disclosure ............................................................................................................................................ 29 End-User-License-Agreement ..................................................................................................................... 32 2 TradeMiner Pro Theory The TradeMiner Pro Software enables a trader to search for historical trends and patterns that meets a certain criteria, or level of success. The user focuses on the month/symbol they wish to see the trend for, how many years to include in the pattern, how often it should win, what the minimum average gain should be to consider it a successful trend, how far the market can retrace before considering it a losing trend and how long the trend should last. The concept is that if we find patterns, cycles or trends that continually repeat themselves in our historical log, then it is likely that these same patterns, cycles and trends will repeat in the future. When you dig for results, the software looks for month/symbol based trading patterns by calculating the following question for every trading day available in the year. "If I enter on the first trading day of the month and exit on the third to the last trading day, do I find a pattern that wins historically?" The entry and exit dates aren't constrained to be in the same month. In order to answer these questions and to look for patterns based on the days since the first of the month or before the end of the month, the historical data is lined up so that the trading days for each month are always at the same offset from the beginning. Because a month will have more trading days some years and less in other years, we use a proprietary method of calculation to even up the data. It’s through this secret formula that we are able to obtain such a high degree of accuracy over time; beyond what anyone else has ever been able to achieve. The software is divided into four steps: Search, Neural Network, Portfolio, and Accounting. The Settings tab allows you make changes to the commodities, currency pairs, and/or equities that will be included in the search tab. The Education tab launches a web browser to the electronic education center 3 Step 1: Search Each time you use Trade Miner you will need to dig for some results based on your criteria. There are several parameters to change, each with a different effect on the results. The software will have some default settings on the first run. It will remember your settings automatically for subsequent runs. User Inputs The user interface in the search tab reads like a sentence with select parameters you the user can change and adjust to find the trends that meet your criteria. Below is the user interface found in the Forex Version. Each of the user defined fields will be described below: Month or Symbol The First dropdown box will allow you to select either a search by month or a search by symbol. Choosing a month focuses the selection of historical trends on those that have trend start date within the selected month. If you choose November, then only trends that start in November will be selected. The trades may last past the end of November, depending on your maximum days setting. Choosing a symbol will allow you to see the historical trends for the entire year of the selected commodity, currency pair, and/or equity. You can then sort the column by date to get a chronological timeline of the historical trends. The second dropdown box will contain a list of months if month is selected in the first dropdown, and if symbol is selected then you can type or scroll to the available symbol you would like to search. Won at least [Blank] % The percent parameter allows you to ignore a set of historical trades unless they win (don't lose money) at least that percent of the time over the number of years examined. If you want to see a winner at least 80% of the time and you go back ten years, at least eight of those years will need to be winners. If you go back five years, at least four of them need to be winners. The granularity of the percent parameter is fairly rough due to the amount of history available. Without going back 100 or more years, there is no difference between 79% and 80%. Both would require at least 4 eight wins on ten years of history. The lowest percentage you can search on is 75%, anything lower is not considered a strong seasonal trend and is ignored. Trend Direction TradeMiner can look for Bullish, Bearish, or Both Bullish and Bearish Trends. Bullish trends are trends that go up in price over the selected day range. Bearish trends are those that go down in price over the selected day range. For Example some stock trading accounts require special permissions to trade short. So selecting only Bullish Trends will ensure that one would only see trends they are able to take. Trading Period The next criterion is how long a trade would have to last to be considered a trend. You may specify the minimum length of the trade in days. If you select trends that last at least 20 trading days, then TradeMiner will only show trends that last longer than 20 trading days. If you would like to cap when a trend ends then the Maximum day parameter lets you type in any number of days as long as it exceeds your minimum trading day selected. If a trade lasts longer than your maximum trading days then it will not be shown. The years parameter allows you to limit or expand the number of years considered when looking for a pattern. The minimum number of years to look back is 5 years. Longer term patterns may be considered to be more reliable than a short term one. On the other hand, markets can change over time and greater number of years may ignore a more recently developed trend. This is a minimum field, if you are looking back 8 years, you would see all trends that last 8 or more years. Filtering Results There are two filters which help to remove redundant trades. When performing a search, there are symbols that will have the same start date but have a different end date. If you wish to see all the different trends and statistics related to each un-checking the filter and performing a dig will reveal all the trades that were filtered out. 5 Some Trends will begin the day after or occur while a longer term trend is happening. If this is the case then the filter to remove same symbols overlapping trend dates, will not show the trends that happen in the middle of a longer tend. Again removing this filter will show the trends that were removed. Dig Now When all your parameters are set selecting the Dig Now button will initiate a search through the data cube and then will present all the trades that meet the criteria. After a dig has been initiated a green progress bar will appear as the software advances through the DataCube. The Dig Now Button will also change to read Cancel which if selected will stop the search and display the results that it was able to find to the point of canceling. User Preferences The User preferences dialog box can be accessed by selecting the User Preferences button 6 Trade Allocation Preferences allow you to set your account balance. You can then choose if you would like to allocate a specific percentage of your account balance to each trade (which will vary the quantity per trade) or you may choose to allocate a fixed quantity to each trade (note: choosing to allocate based on quantity will allow the per trade quantity to be the same on every trade every trade regardless of your account size). The Neural Network Risk Tolerance Preferences Tab allows you to set your individual risk tolerance. Conservative The Conservative setting is for risk-adverse traders and this simply means that , when building the neural network classification model, this setting will tell the model to avoid as many unsuccessful trades as possible (this also means that some potentially large gains will likely be missed). When this setting is selected there will typically be fewer trades classified as successful and more trades classified as unsuccessful, because the neural network is putting most of its effort towards identifying the trades that look like they will be unsuccessful trades. Lastly, this setting is typically used by those who are relatively passive investors. Moderate The Moderate setting is for traders who are somewhat risk-adverse, but also do not want to miss out on too many large gains. This setting is in between Conservative and Aggressive, which means that the classification model will give an equal amount of effort to trying to identify successful trades as it does trying to identify unsuccessful trades. In other words, instead of focusing on one type of trade over the other, both types of trades will be treated equally, which means that there should be, on average, a more equal number of both types of trades (successful vs. unsuccessful) included in the output of the neural network model. Lastly, this setting is typically used by those who aren’t completely active traders but also aren’t completely passive investors. Aggressive The Aggressive setting is for traders who have very little risk aversion and this simply means that, when building the neural network classification model, this setting will tell the model to focus on identifying as many successful trades as possible (this also means that some potentially large losses will be included as well). When this setting is selected there will typically be more trades classified as successful and fewer trades classified as unsuccessful, because the neural network Is putting most of its effort towards identifying the trades that look like they will be losing trades. Lastly, this setting is typically used by those who are relatively active traders The Portfolio Optimization Preferences section will allow you to set your preference of how you would like the auto-selection algorithm to help choose an optimal portfolio for you based on your risk profile: Minimize Risk The Minimize Risk setting attempts to choose trades for your portfolio that are not as volatile and work well with other uncorrelated similar trades. Maximize Return 7 The Maximize Return setting attempts to choose trades for your portfolio that maximize return, which can mean bigger potential gains as well as bigger potential losses due to historically higher volatility and attempts to group them with other uncorrelated similar trades. Minimize Risk and Maximize Return The Minimize Risk and Maximize Return setting attempts to choose trades that are a happy medium of both minimizing risk and maximizing return and attempts to assemble a portfolio meeting these criteria with as low of correlation as possible. The last optional checkbox in this preference is whether you want the auto-selection algorithm to choose the max number of trades for you to be in consistently based on the choices it has to choose from in your pick list. So for example if your max number of trades is 5 and 1 of those trades ends before the other trades end then the algorithm will attempt to add in another trade so you are always in 5 trades as often as possible. By not having this box checked it will simply choose 5 trades total from the pick list for you to be in. The Closed Trades Preferences Help section allows you to choose to have your closed trades (where the End Date has passed) automatically moved to step 4 to the closed trades accounting tab or whether you would like to manually move them. If you choose to have them automatically moved, you have to keep this in mind when back testing on past months because when you attempt to move trades from your pick list to your portfolio they will recognize that the end date has past and move automatically over to your closed trades in step 4. So for back testing you would want this in manual mode and for forward trading and analyzing you may choose either mode. The Score Weight Preferences system uses many different factors to score each individual trade. Volatility of Returns, Average Returns, Percent Accuracy, and Drawdown are the four factors that can be adjusted by the user (the other factors are proprietary and cannot be adjusted0 and adjusting their percentages will adjust the impact that each respective factor has on the score of the trade. Volatility of Returns and Drawdown are negative factors and increasing their percentages will increase the score of trades that are less volatile and have smaller drawdowns and will decrease the score of trades that are more volatile and have larger drawdowns. Average Returns and Percent Accuracy are positive factors and increasing the percentages will increase the score of trades that have high percentage returns and high percentage accuracy and will decrease the score of trades that have low percentage returns and low percentage accuracy. 8 Note: The impact to the score that occurs when the percentage for each factor is adjusted will be different for different trades. The impact to the score of trades with higher scores will be less noticeable when compared to the impact to the score of trades with lower scores, and the reason that this will typically be the case is because the un-adjustable, proprietary factors have a greater impact on trades with higher scores. All of these descriptions can be accessed in the software by selecting the Help button. Results Window Once you have a list of trends that meet your search criteria, you can drill down on the specifics of individual trade opportunities. You are able to sort by any of the columns in the table to group your preferred trades together. Columns Add - Checked trades are in your Neural Network tab. Toggling the check box in this column adds or removes them from the Watch List. Double-clicking the row adds that trade to your Neural Network if it was not already selected and switches to the Neural Network tab. Score - A software ranking system on a scale of 5-0, with 5 being the high. Score takes into account volatility of returns, average returns, percent accuracy, and drawdown. This score is the software’s way of filtering through the results and providing trends that are stronger as a higher score. Trend - The direction of the entry trade, bullish (buying) bearish (selling) Symbol - The symbol to buy or sell Instrument – Name of the Commodity, Currency Pair, or Equity. Begin (Open) - The date the trend generally begins, projected into this year's calendar. End (Close) - The date the trend tends to end. Win % - Percentage of years that were winners. Years – Number of years in the pattern. Cal Days – Number of calendar days in the trade. Avg Profit (% or %ROM) – The average closed profit and loss for this trade historically displayed as a percentage rate. 9 Avg Profit ($)- The average closed profit and loss for this trade historically displayed in dollars. Avg Profit (Tics, Pips) – [Futures and Forex only] – The average profit displayed in tics or pips Risk:Reward – Historical Risk vs Reward for the number of years the trend has existed. Avg Daily Profit (% or %ROM) - Average daily profit displayed as a percentage rate. Max Gain (Pips or Tics) – [Futures and Forex only] – The biggest historical single-year closed profit for the number of years the trend has existed. Tic Value/Pip Value – [Futures and Forex only] – The value of the tic or pip price. Quantity – How many contracts, shares, or pairs purchased. This amount is set in the user preferences. Margin/Contract – [Futures and Forex only] – The price of the margin or contract price. Avg Daily Profit (Tics or Pips) – [Futures and Forex only] – Average daily profit displayed in tics or pips. Avg Daily Profit ($) – Average daily profit displayed in dollars. Biggest Profit (Tics or Pips) – [Futures and Forex only] – The biggest historical single-year closed profit and loss for this trade displayed in tics or pips. Biggest Profit (% or %ROM) - The biggest historical single-year closed profit and loss for this trade displayed as a percentage. Biggest Profit ($) - The biggest historical single-year closed profit and loss for this trade. Max Draw (Tics or Pips) – [Futures and Forex only] - The most the market moved against the trade historically displayed in tics or pips Max Draw (% or %ROM) - The most the market moved against the trade historically displayed as a percentage rate. Max Daw ($) - The most the market moved against the trade historically in dollars Avg Draw (Tics or Pips) – [Futures and Forex only] - The average draw down for this trade historically displayed in tics or pips. Avg Draw (% or %ROM) - The average draw down for this trade historically displayed as a percentage rate. Avg Draw ($) - The average draw down for this trade historically in dollars. Total Wins - Total count of winning years. Total Losses - Total count of loosing years. Max Gain (% or %ROM) - The biggest historical single-year closed profit for the number of years the trend has existed displayed as a percentage rate Max Gain ($) - The biggest historical single-year closed profit for the number of years the trend has existed displayed in dollars Trading Days - Number of trading days in the trade. Total Historical Profit (% or %ROM) Total Historical Profit ($) - Sum of the profit (or loss) from all the years in the pattern. Amount/Trade – The dollar amount traded for the displayed results. Optionable - [Stocks and Futures only] – signifies if the commodity or equity Is available for option trading. Group – [Futures only] – Classification of a Commodity, i.e. Grains, Metals, Energies, etc… 10 Previous Close - [Stocks only] – will display the last close price of the equity at the time of last internet connection. Internet is required to update the close prices. Sector - [Stocks only] - Classification of equities, i.e. Healthcare, Financial, Technology, etc... Industry - [Stocks only] – Deeper Classification of equities You may drag any column to a different location in the results window. You can also select the Colum Options Button and add, remove, or position any of the columns as you prefer. Column Formulas Average Profit: Total profit / years Total Historical Profit: Sum(profit(top year):profit(top year - years)) Max Draw: If buying, the difference between the entry price and the lowest low during the trade. If selling, the difference between the entry price and the highest high during the trade. Avg Draw: Total draw / years Avg Daily Profit Percent: Daily percent profit = percent profit / calendar days in trade Total daily percent profit = sum of daily percent profit for all years in the trade Average daily percent profit = total daily percent profit / years Avg Daily Profit Dollars: Daily profit = profit / calendar days in trade Total daily profit = sum of daily profit for all years in the trade Average daily profit = total daily profit / years Risk Reward Ratio: Risk reward ratio = average profit / average draw Score: Proprietary formula that determines which opportunities make the most amount of money, in the shortest amount of time, with the least amount of risk. Charts TradeMiner provides several charts to help display the information in the results window. On the right hand side of the software are 4 clickable windows. When a chart is clicked a larger table/chart will be shown beneath the Results Window. 11 Historic Histogram The historical Histogram is a look back in time. This is what your portfolio would have looked like if every year over the course of the trend you had entered at the open of the trend and exited at the close of the trend. Year-by-Year look back The Year-by-Year looks back is a graph that allows you to quickly see the winning and losing years, also you can identify the max draw downs and max the market hit during the trend dates. Winning trades show as a green bar, losing trades as a red bar. The White lines signify how high and low the investment went up and or down during the trend period. 12 Historical Average Risk vs. Reward The Historical Average Risk vs. Reward chart visually shows in a pie chart the amount of risk vs reward. Year-by-Year Trade Table The Year-by-Year Trade Table shows a accounting of each year’s trade during the trend period. The Date the trade Started and ended as well as the entry and exit price are shown. The Max Draw and the closed P&L is also calculated. 13 Step 2: Neural Network You can add trades to the Neural Network tab in Step 1 by selecting the add column on the desired trend, or by double clicking the trend. Switching over to the Neural Network Tab you will see the User interface on this tab. In Step 2 TradeMiner will calculate a High, Medium, Low, and Very Low probability that the trade will act as it has in the past. In other words the software runs the selected trades through a neural network and attempts to identify if the historical trend will repeat this upcoming year. Because the neural network looks at current market data you must have an internet connection to receive a probability. Neural Network Prediction Model Brief Overview of Neural Networks A biological neural network is simply a series of interconnected neurons that interact with each other in order to transmit signals and process information. In other words, biological neural networks give humans the ability to learn complex patterns. Similarly, an artificial neural network (which is what we used for our prediction model) is a mathematical model that was inspired by biological neural networks, and can be used for pattern recognition purposes. We are simply going to call them neural networks. Overview of the Trade Classification Model The TradeMiner Probability column, which is located in Step 2: Neural Network, uses a neural network pattern recognition model to classify each TradeMiner trade that has been added to Step 2 as either a “successful” trade or an “unsuccessful” trade (a successful trade is simply a trade that has positive 14 returns and, inversely, an unsuccessful trade is simply a trade that has negative returns). In order to do this, the neural network model uses various technical indicators, which are calculated using the price action that occurs prior to each trade entry date, to determine what a trade “looks like” (i.e., whether it looks like it will be a successful trade or whether it looks like it will be an unsuccessful trade) by comparing the current-year indicator values to the same values for historical trades. Once a trade is classified as either successful trade or an unsuccessful trade (this is the current-year directional bias of the trade), then each trade is further classified as either High, Medium, Low or Very Low, where High/Medium classifications are given to trades that look like they will be successful and Low/Very Low trades classifications are given to trades that look like they will be unsuccessful. In addition to the directional bias, there is another important characteristic that distinguishes High from Medium and Low from Very Low, which is whether or not a trade looks like it will be an average trade. For example, if a trade looks like it will have a greater-than-average gain then that trade will be classified as High, but if the trade looks like it will have an average gain then that trade will be classified as Medium. Similarly, if a trade looks like it will have a greater-than-average loss then that trade will be classified as Very Low, but if the trade looks like it will have an average loss then that trade will be classified as Low. Using the Neural Network Classification Model The first thing that needs to be done, prior to using the classification model, is to make sure that you have specified your individual risk tolerance preferences, where you will be able to select from conservative, moderate, or aggressive. This preference can be set by selecting the User Preferences button that is located in the top-right corner of Step 1 through Step 4. Another important thing to remember is that since the neural network classification model uses currentyear daily prices, trade classifications can only be made up to 15 trading days before the actual trade entry date; however, as would be expected, the closer to the trade entry date that a trade classification is made, the more accurate the classification will likely be (e.g., using the neural network to classify a trade the day before the trade entry date means that the model will be using relatively more accurate price data, when compared to a classification that is made 15 trading days before the trade entry date). Additionally, the classification for each individual trade can only be made one time each day (which makes sense because the neural network uses daily price data) and, as new price data is included in the classification model, trade classifications will sometimes change so it is a good idea to re-calculate the neural network model one last time prior to placing any trades. If you would like to only calculate classifications for trades that are within a specified number of trading days before the trade start date, you can adjust the number of trading days before the trade start date that classifications will be allowed. However, it is important to remember that the greater the number of classifications models that need to be built, the longer it will take to calculate the neural network results, so the computation time can be reduced by only classifying trades that are within a smaller number of trading days. The setting for the total number of trading days prior to the trade start date, which controls how soon classifications can be made, can be adjusted prior to pressing the Calculate Now button to classify each of the trades. 15 After running the neural network model, trades that are not yet close enough to the trade start date will not receive a trade classification. Instead, the TradeMiner Probability column will tell you the number of days until a classification can be calculated. If the trade is close enough to the trade start date so that a classification can be calculated, the trade classification will show up in the Probability column after the trade has been classified. Classification Model Trade “Types” The two “types” of trades that the TradeMiner neural network classification model recognizes includes both trend following trades and mean reversion trades. Trend following trades (see figure 1) occur when an asset tends to move in one particular direction for an extended period of time and, after which, the asset reverses its current trend and starts trending in the opposite direction. Figure 1: Trend Following Trade Mean reversion trades (see figure 2) occur when an asset tends to revert back to its mean value (i.e., average value) over time, after having been “over-bought” or “over-sold” for a period of time. In other words, the asset has an “equilibrium” price (or “equilibrium” average rate of return) that it tends to revert back to whenever it has moved too far in one direction. 16 Figure 2: Mean Reversion Trade Trade Classification Characteristics As mentioned previously, the TradeMiner neural network classification model uses pattern recognition to identify what successful and unsuccessful trades “look like” (which can be both trend following trades and mean reverting trades). If a trade is identified as being a successful trade, the trade classification will either be a classification of High or a classification of Medium, and, similarly, if a trade is identified as being an unsuccessful trade, the trade classification will either be a classification of Low or a classification of Very Low. In order to help you visualize what I mean by what successful and unsuccessful trades “look like,” I am going to provide a hypothetical example of a trend following trade that will give you an idea of what pattern that type of trade might follow, for each of the different trade classifications. A trend following trade that “looks like” it will be successful will typically start building momentum after prices reverse course and start a new trend and, after the new trend has been established (see figure 3), the price action will need to further confirm the validity of the trend reversal (assuming that the trade is, indeed, a successful trade). For a trend following trade, all of this will typically occur prior to the trade entry date. The exit date of the TradeMiner trade will either be near the end of the entire trend or close to the end of one or more legs of the trend, which will obviously differ depending on many different variables such as the length of the trade. On the other hand, a trend following trade that “looks like” it will be unsuccessful, prior to the trade entry date, won’t be able to completely reverse its prior trend, so prices will continue moving in the same direction after a brief price consolidation (see figure 4). 17 Figure 3: Characteristics of a Successful Trade Figure 4: Characteristics of a Unsuccessful Trade If the trade “looks like” it will be successful (as shown in figure 3 above), the neural network classification model will classify the trade as either High or Medium. If the trade classification is Medium, then the model has determined that the trade is currently exhibiting the characteristics of a successful trade that has an average positive return (an average trade is simply a trade where the trade metrics, such as return and volatility, have values that are similar to their respective historical values). This means that the model expects the trade to follow its typical price pattern and that it also expects the trade to be a successful trade, which is the directional bias of a Medium trade classification (see figure 5 for an example). If the trade is classified as High, then the trade is currently exhibiting the characteristics of a successful trade that has a greater-than-average positive return (a greater-thanaverage trade is simply a trade where the trade metrics, such as return and volatility, have values that are greater than their typical values). This means that the trade is expected to be more volatile than a typical trade and that it also expects the trade to be a successful trade, which is the directional bias of a High trade (see figure 6 for an example). Figure 5: Characteristics of a Medium Trade Figure 6: Characteristics of a High Trade 18 If the trade “looks like” it will be unsuccessful (as shown in figure 4 above), the neural network classification model will classify the trade as either Low or Very Low. If the trade classification is Low, then the model has determined that the trade is currently exhibiting the characteristics of an unsuccessful trade that has an average negative return. This means that the model expects the trade to follow its typical unsuccessful price pattern, which means the directional bias of the trade is negative (see figure 7 for an example). If the trade classification is Very Low, then the model has determined that the trade is currently exhibiting the characteristics of a greater-than average unsuccessful trade. This means that the model expects the trade to have a greater-than-average negative return, which means that the directional bias of the trade is negative and that the trade “looks like” it will be more volatile that the typical unsuccessful trade (see figure 8 for an example). Figure 7: Characteristics of a Low Trade Figure 8: Characteristics of a Very Low Trade The most important thing to remember about the neural network trade classification model is that it uses a pattern recognition model to identify what successful and unsuccessful trades “look like,” where trades that are classified as High or Medium “look like” they will be successful trades and trades that are classified as Low or Very Low “look like” they will be unsuccessful trades. Additionally, the two extreme classifications (i.e., High and Very Low) tend to be more volatile trades, whereas the two middle classifications (i.e., Medium and Low) tend to be trades that are similar to the average historical trade. See table 1 for a summary of each of the trade classifications. Table 1: Trade Classification Characteristics Classification Summary of Classification Characteristics High These trades are classified as successful trades (i.e., they have a positive return bias). These trades are typically more volatile than the average historical trade, especially when prices are either overbought (for long trades) or oversold (for short trades). 19 Medium These trades typically produce greater-than-average positive returns; however, if the current trend reverses course during the trade, then the trade could end up producing large losses as the asset price reverses and moves quickly in the other direction. These trades are classified as successful trades (i.e., they have a positive return bias). These trades have characteristics that are similar to the average trade. Low These trades do not have any particular trade behavior to watch out for. These trades are classified as unsuccessful trades (i.e., they have a negative return bias). These trades have characteristics that are similar to the average trade. Very Low These trades do not have any particular trade behavior to watch out for. These trades are classified as unsuccessful trades (i.e., they have a negative return bias). These trades are typically more volatile than the average historical trade, especially when prices are either oversold (for long trades) or overbought (for short trades). These trades typically produce greater-than-average negative returns; however, if the current price trend reverses course during the trade, then the trade could end up producing large gains as the asset price reverses and moves quickly in the other direction. Trade Strategies Based on Trade Classification There are many different trading strategies that can be applied to the results of the neural network model output and the type of trade strategy chosen will likely depend on both your individual risk tolerance (i.e., conservative, moderate, or aggressive) and the type of investor that you are (i.e., active trader vs. passive investor). To provide an example, a passive investor that is relatively conservative would want to set their risk tolerance setting to conservative (which tells the classification model to focus on avoiding unsuccessful trades and will typically produce fewer trades with High or Medium classifications) and then only enter into trades that are classified as either High or Medium. It would also be a good idea, when using this type of strategy, to select a greater number of trades in order to have a more diversified portfolio. 20 On the other hand, an active trader that is relatively aggressive would want to set their risk tolerance to aggressive (which tells the classification model to focus on not missing out on successful trades and will typically produce a relatively greater number of trades with High or Medium classifications) and enter into trades that are either classified as High or Medium, while watching trades classified as Very Low in order to see if they reverse course. It would also be a good idea, when using this type of strategy, to select a relatively smaller number of trades in order to have a more concentrated portfolio, so that each trade can be watched more closely. Lastly, the two strategies presented in this section are definitely an exhaustive list of the types of strategies that could be used with the TradeMiner Neural Network Analysis Tool, and the only reason that I am providing these examples is to illustrate of a couple of different ways that the neural network model could be used. Non-Normal Events (and other market events) When using the neural network classification model, it is important to pay attention to both non-normal market events (a non-normal event is an uncommon event that impacts the markets in a way that reduces the likelihood of a historical trend recurring, at least for the time being) and market events, especially when one occurs after the trade entry date. A good example of a non-normal market event is the 2011 Japanese earthquake and tsunami, which had a large impact on nuclear-related stocks (especially uranium producers), because of the nuclear disaster that occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant and the negative sentiment towards nuclear power generation that resulted. This type of non-normal market event will likely invalidate any ongoing historical trend that might be occurring at the time (assuming that the event doesn’t have the same directional impact as the trend) and it is definitely be a good idea to take the expected impact of the event into consideration before any trading decisions are made (assuming that the trade hasn’t yet been made). A good example of an important market event to pay attention to is an earnings release (for stocks) or a crop report (for commodities) that occurs during a trade’s entry and exit dates, and even though these market events could be what cause the historical trend to occur (at least most of the time), they also bring in additional uncertainty and risk if their results don’t turn out as expected. For example, if a stock has a strong rally right before an upcoming earnings release, the risk associated with a bad earnings report may outweigh the potential reward from a good earnings report, and the best strategy might be to simply take your profits a little bit early (or, potentially, purchase some protection in order to hedge your position). This would have definitely been a prudent strategy to take for a Select Comfort (SCSS) trade, which had an entry date of 01-02-2013 and an exit date of 01-29-2013, because they ended up reporting pretty weak results and giving a negative future outlook (which was released after market close on the 24th of January and was only a few days before the trade exit date), and their shares ended up sinking the following day 21 Summary of the Neural Network Analysis Tool TradeMiner is a tool that identifies historical trends and patterns, and the TradeMiner neural network pattern recognition model is a classification model that identifies what successful and unsuccessful trades “look like,” prior to their trade start date, and then classifies each trade as either successful or unsuccessful and whether or not the trade looks like an average trade or a greater-than-average trade. 22 Step 3: Portfolio The Portfolio tab may be used to create and analyze a list of desired contracts within a customizable trading portfolio. Once trades have been added into your Pick List, you may then choose the number of active trades to be displayed, how many additional trades you may wish to add, and you may have TradeMiner automatically choose which trades out of your Pick List to be added into your Portfolio. You may expand or collapse your Pick List/Portfolio sections by select the black arrows which separate the two sections. Click the up arrow to expand the Portfolio, click the down arrow to expand the Pick List. These arrows appear within the follow graphic: Pick List You may add trades into the Step 3 tab by selecting Add to Pick List from Step 2. Your Pick List will be used to determine which trades to add into your Portfolio when choosing to Auto Select. From this section you may choose to Print your Pick List, Remove Selected to return highlighted trades into Step 2, Remove All trades into Step 2, or Move to Portfolio all trades listed within your current Pick List. Portfolio Once trades have been added into your Portfolio from your Pick List, you may analyze the current profit/loss of all open trades from the Open Trades Total: beneath your trades list. You may also see the combined profit of all closed and open trades from the Grand Total. If you would like to remove a trade from your Portfolio, select to either Remove Selected or Remove All. Removed trades will return to 23 your Pick List. Once you have finished analyzing trades within your Portfolio, you may move them to Step 4: Accounting by selecting Move to Closed Trades. Portfolio Analytics A new technical analysis graphic appears within the Portfolio called the Portfolio Analytics. The Portfolio Analytics will display a bar graph of your Expected Daily Risk Levels along with your Total Period Portfolio Metrics as show below: Daily Risk Levels The daily risk levels graph includes two daily risk metrics: expected daily Value at Risk (VaR) and expected daily Volatility. Value at Risk (VaR): The Value at Risk (VaR) metric is the largest percentage decline, based on a 95% probability, that a given portfolio is likely to incur on any given day (i.e., there is a 95% probability that a given portfolio will not lose more, on a percentage basis, than its VaR value on any given day). Example: If a portfolio has a VaR value of 10% and a current value of $100, it is 95% likely that the portfolio will not lose more than 10% (i.e., $10), on any given day. Volatility: The Volatility metric us the expected daily volatility of a given portfolio (i.e., it is the typical up and down percentage movement of the entire portfolio on any given day). Example: If a portfolio has an expected volatility of 5% and a current value of $100, the expected daily up and down price movement is expected to be, on average, 5% of the total portfolio value (i.e., $5, up or down, on any given day). 24 Total Period Portfolio Metrics The total period portfolio metrics section includes two types of values; expected confidence intervals and actual metric values. The expected confidence intervals and the actual metric values are provided for both Portfolio Return and Portfolio Max Drawdown. Portfolio Return: The Portfolio Return confidence interval is an estimate of the expected portfolio return that will occur over the entire portfolio period (the “expected portfolio return will fall within the interval range). The “Worst” value is the bottom of the range and the “Best” value is the top of the range, whereas the “Expected” value is simply the estimated portfolio return value. Example: If a portfolio has an expected portfolio return of 10% (with 8% as its “worst” estimate and 12% as its “best” estimate) and a beginning value of $100, the expected range of the portfolio return, based on a 95% probability, is 8% ($8) to 12% ($12), with an expected value of 10% ($10). Portfolio Max Drawdown (Confidence Interval): The Max Drawdown confidence interval is an estimate of the expected maximum drawdown during the portfolio period (the “Max Drawdown” of portfolio is the maximum percentage decline that occurs during a given period) and its 95% confidence interval (I.e., there is 95% confidence that the maximum drawdown will fall within the interval range). The “Worst” value is the bottom of the range and the “Best” value is the top of the range, whereas the “Expected” value is simply the estimated max drawdown value. Example: If a portfolio has an expected maximum drawdown of 7% (with 8% as its “worst” estimate and 6% as its “best” estimate) and a begging value of $100, the expected range of the portfolio drawdown, based on a 95% probability, is 6% ($6) to 8% ($8), with an expected value of 7% ($7). Portfolio Return & Portfolio Max Drawdown (Actual Values): The values for the Portfolio Return and Portfolio Max Drawdown metrics are simply the actual historical values that occurred, for an individual portfolio, during the prior year and during the current year (current year values will be 0% if the portfolio isn’t yet active, have blue text if portfolio is currently active, and have black text if the portfolio is no longer active and all trades are over). 25 Step 4: Accounting Your Accounting tab may be used to store all of your closed trades. These trades may be entered using the Move to Closed Trades button within the Step 3 Portfolio, or automatically after closing. Your Accounting tab will display a grand total for all trades along with all profit/loss information for each trade. 26 Settings Tab In the setting tab you will find all the commodities, currency pairs, or Stock equities included in the data cube. In the settings tab you can create customized groups to search for trends in. Any symbol that has a checkmark in the “Use” column will be included when you run a search in step 1. Each of the columns in the settings tab can be clicked on to sort in ascending/descending order. Examples of custom groups include all grain contracts in the futures version. This group would be created by sorting by the Group option and selecting all the contracts with a Grain grouping. Another Example is stocks that trade between $10-$20, Sorting by the previous close and then selecting only those stocks in the $10-$20 price range would create the custom group desired. Once all the symbols you desire in your group are selected you can select “Save Group” and a dialogue box will appear asking you to name your group. After you have named your group you can find in the drop down any time after. 27 Education Tab The TradeMiner Education center has step-by-step videos walking through each aspect of the software. 28 Risk Disclosure High Risk Investments Trading Stocks, Futures, Foreign Exchange (Forex), or Options on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any of these markets you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading these markets, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Internet Trading Risks There are risks associated with utilizing an Internet-based deal execution trading system including, but not limited to, the failure of hardware, software, and Internet connection. Since Gecko Software and any partners do not control signal power, its reception or routing via Internet, configuration of your equipment or reliability of its connection, we cannot be responsible for communication failures, distortions or delays when trading via the Internet. Our partners, employ back-up systems and contingency plans to minimize the possibility of system failure, and trading via telephone to the clearing firm is an additional option if such an event occurs. Accuracy of Information The content in this manual and on the website is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions. Gecko Software has taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the information on the website, however, does not guarantee its accuracy, and will not accept liability for any loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from the content or your inability to access the website, for any delay in or failure of the transmission or the receipt of any instruction or notifications sent through this website or by email. Distribution This site is not intended for distribution, or use by, any person in any country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. None of the services or investments referred to in this website are available to persons residing in any country where the provision of such services or investments would be contrary to local law or regulation or to the laws of the United States. It is the responsibility of visitors to this website to ascertain the terms of and comply with any local law or regulation to which they are subject. Market Risks and Online Trading The trading program(s) provide sophisticated order entry and tracking of orders. All stop-loss, limit and entry orders are generally deemed reliable against slippage, but slippage may still occur based on market conditions and liquidity. Trading on-line, no matter how convenient or efficient does not 29 necessarily reduce risks associated with stocks, futures, forex, or options trading. All quotes and trades are subject to the terms and conditions of the End-User License Agreement and Client Agreement. Testimonial Disclaimer Unique experiences and past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results! Testimonials herein are unsolicited and are non-representative of all clients; certain accounts may have worse performance than that indicated. Trading Stocks, Futures, Forex, or Options involves substantial risk and there is always the potential for loss. Your trading results may vary. Because the risk factor is high trading any leverage markets, only genuine “risk” funds should be used in such trading. If you do not have the extra capital that you can afford to lose, you should not trade. No completely “safe” trading system has ever been devised, and no one can guarantee profits or freedom from loss. Gecko Software does not pay for testimonials, most of our testimonials are unsolicited and voluntary. Gecko Software Market Opinions Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website are provided as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. Gecko Software is not liable for any loss or damage, including without limitation, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Gecko Software has taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the information on the website. The content on this website is subject to change at any time without notice. Views, Opinions, and outside links The views and opinions represented in any link to an outside website link and/or resources are not controlled by Gecko Software or by our associated firms. Further, Gecko Software nor our associated firms are responsible for their availability, content, or delivery of services. DISCLAIMER: THE DATA CONTAINED HEREIN IS BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT CANNOT BE GUARANTEED AS TO RELIABILITY, ACCURACY, OR COMPLETENESS; AND, AS SUCH ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. WE WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ANYTHING, WHICH MAY RESULT FROM RELIANCE ON THIS DATA OR THE OPINIONS EXPRESSED HERE IN. DISCLOSURE OF RISK: THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING STOCKS, FUTURES, FOREX, AND OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL; THEREFORE, ONLY GENUINE RISK FUNDS SHOULD BE USED. STOCKS, FUTURES, FOREX, AND OPTIONS MAY NOT BE SUITABLE INVESTMENTS FOR ALL INDIVIDUALS, AND INDIVIDUALS SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER THEIR FINANCIAL CONDITION IN DECIDING WHETHER TO TRADE. OPTION TRADERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THE EXERCISE OF A LONG OPTION WOULD RESULT IN A FUTURES OR FOREX POSITION. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO, ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 30 HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM, IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES, ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS, IN GENERAL, OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. 31 End-User-License-Agreement IMPORTANT-READ CAREFULLY: This Gecko End-User License Agreement ("EULA") is a legal agreement between you (either an individual or a single entity) and Gecko Software, Inc., corporation for the Gecko software product identified above, which includes computer software and may include associated media, printed materials, and "online" or electronic documentation and data ("SOFTWARE PRODUCT"). The SOFTWARE PRODUCT also includes any updates and supplements to the original SOFTWARE PRODUCT provided to you by Gecko. 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DESCRIPTION OF OTHER RIGHTS AND LIMITATIONS Academic Edition Software. If the SOFTWARE PRODUCT is identified as "Academic Edition" or "AE," you must be a "Qualified Educational User" to use the SOFTWARE PRODUCT. If you are not a Qualified Education User, you have no rights under this EULA. To determine if you are a Qualified Educational User, please contact the Gecko Sales Information Center in the USA at 435-752-8026. 32 Not For Resale Software. If the SOFTWARE PRODUCT is labeled "Not For Resale" or "NFR," then, notwithstanding other sections of this EULA, your use of the SOFTWARE PRODUCT is limited to use for demonstration, test, or evaluation purposes and you may not resell, or otherwise transfer for value, or install the SOFTWARE PRODUCT on more than one single COMPUTER. Limitations on Reverse Engineering, Decompilation, and Disassembly. 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All SOFTWARE PRODUCTS provided to the U.S. Government pursuant to solicitations issued on or after December 1, 1995 is provided with the commercial license rights and restrictions described elsewhere herein. All SOFTWARE PRODUCT provided to the U. S. Government pursuant to solicitations issued prior to December 1, 1995 is provided with "Restricted Rights" as provided for in FAR, 48 CFR 52.227-14 (JUNE 1987) or DFAR, 48 CFR 252.227-7013 (OCT 1988), as applicable. 8. EXPORT RESTRICTIONS. You agree that you will not export or re-export the SOFTWARE PRODUCT, any part thereof, or any process or service that is the direct product of the SOFTWARE PRODUCT (the foregoing collectively referred to as the "Restricted Components"), to any country, person or entity subject to U.S. export restrictions. You specifically agree not to export or re-export any of the Restricted Components: (i) to any country to which the U.S. has embargoed or restricted the export of goods or services, which currently include, but are not necessarily limited to Cuba, Iran, Iraq, Libya, North Korea, Sudan and Syria, or to any national of any such country, wherever located, who intends to transmit or transport the Restricted Components back to such country; (ii) to any person or entity who you know or have reason to know will utilize the Restricted 34 Components in the design, development or production of nuclear, chemical or biological weapons; or (iii) to any person or entity who has been prohibited from participating in U.S. export transactions by any federal agency of the U.S. government. You warrant and represent that neither the BXA nor any other U.S. federal agency has suspended, revoked or denied your export privileges. MISCELLANEOUS This EULA is governed by the laws of the State of Utah. If this product was acquired outside the United States, then local law may apply. Should you have any questions concerning this EULA, or if you desire to contact Gecko for any reason, please contact Gecko on the World Wide Web at: www.GeckoSoftware.com. LIMITED WARRANTY Gecko warrants that the SOFTWARE PRODUCT will attempt to perform in accordance to our advertisements for a period of three (3) days from the date of receipt. If it does not perform to your expectation, the only guarantee Gecko Software gives is a refund of the purchase price paid of the said software application. This warranty is only good for a period of thirty (30) days from the date of purchase, and only applies to This Product & its corresponding expansion packs and plug-ins; this warranty does not apply to any accompanying educational materials or supplies, which carries no warranty whatsoever. This Product was designed for the intended use to be of a financial market educational resource only, as a way to educate yourself to the normal seasonal trends and cycles created by past historical market action. In no way can Gecko Software guarantee that markets will react in the future as they have in the past, and therefore this tool is intended for reference purposes only, and is only meant to be used as a guide to seasonal trends. In no way is Gecko Software suggesting that you buy on the buy date and sell on the sell date. The dates specified in the software are only intended as educational reference points for past trend beginnings and endings. Gecko does not guarantee that any mathematical formulas are correct, or that any data is correct, or that any of the rules used to create the software are correct. These are just our best guess, and you as the licensee of the software agree not to hold Gecko liable for any mistakes, discrepancies, inaccuracies or mathematical errors that may be included with the software application, supporting materials, manuals, or supplemental products provided by Gecko Software, Inc. or its subsidiaries, groups, friends, associates, managers, employee's, spouses, or anyone else who lives on planet earth. You agree to use this software totally and 100% at your own risk. You must also agree to and recognize that the list of support technologies, provided by numerous companies, is long and the ability to bring all these capabilities together in a workable solution is magic at best, and the user recognizes that any failure of any of these technologies along the way could cause any part of or all of this program and associated features to fail, and agrees to hold Gecko and all associated companies harmless in all respects. If an implied warranty or condition is created by your state/jurisdiction and federal or state/provincial law prohibits disclaimer of it, you also have an implied warranty or condition, BUT ONLY AS TO DEFECTS DISCOVERED DURING THE PERIOD OF THIS LIMITED WARRANTY (THREE (3) DAYS). AS 35 TO ANY DEFECTS DISCOVERED AFTER THE THREE (3) DAY PERIOD, THERE IS NO WARRANTY OR CONDITION OF ANY KIND. Some states/jurisdictions do not allow limitations on duration of an implied warranty, so the above limitation may not apply to you. Any supplements or updates to the SOFTWARE PRODUCT, including without limitation, any (if any) service pack or hot fixes provided to you after the expiration of the three (3) day Limited Warranty period are not covered by any warranty or condition, express or implied. LIMITATION ON REMEDIES; NO CONSEQUENTIAL OR OTHER DAMAGES Your exclusive remedy for any breach of this Limited Warranty is as set forth below. Except for any refund elected by Gecko, YOU ARE NOT ENTITLED TO ANY DAMAGES, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES, if the SOFTWARE PRODUCT does not meet Gecko's Limited Warranty, and, to the maximum extent allowed by applicable law, even if any remedy fails of its essential purpose. The terms "Exclusion of Incidental, Consequential and Certain Other Damages" below are also incorporated into this Limited Warranty. Some states/jurisdictions do not allow the exclusion or limitation of incidental or consequential damages, so the above limitation or exclusion may not apply to you. This Limited Warranty gives you specific legal rights. You may have others that vary from state/jurisdiction to state/jurisdiction. YOUR EXCLUSIVE REMEDY Gecko and its suppliers' entire liability and your exclusive remedy shall be, at Gecko's option from time to time, (a) return of the price paid (if any) for, or (b) repair or replacement of, the SOFTWARE PRODUCT that does not meet this Limited Warranty and that is returned to Gecko with a copy of your receipt. You will receive the remedy elected by Gecko without charge, except that you are responsible for any expenses you may incur (e.g. cost of shipping the SOFTWARE PRODUCT to Gecko). This Limited Warranty is void if failure of the SOFTWARE PRODUCT has resulted from accident, abuse, misapplication, abnormal use a virus or as an act of god as defined by the laws of the state of Utah. Any replacement SOFTWARE PRODUCT will be warranted for the remainder of the original warranty period of three (3) days. Outside the United States, neither these remedies nor any product support services offered by Gecko are available without proof of purchase from an authorized international source. To exercise your remedy, contact: Gecko Software, Inc., Attn. Gecko Sales Information Center at the Web address specified above. DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTIES The limited warranty that appears above is the only express warranty made to you and is provided in lieu of any other express warranties (if any) created by any documentation, packaging, or outside reseller advertisements or claims. Except for the limited warranty and to the maximum extent permitted by applicable law, Gecko and its suppliers provide the SOFTWARE PRODUCT and Support Services (if any) AS IS AND WITH ALL FAULTS, and hereby disclaim all other warranties and conditions, either express, implied or statutory, including, but not limited to, any (if any) implied warranties or conditions of merchantability, of fitness for a particular purpose, of lack of viruses, of accuracy or completeness of responses, of results, and of lack of negligence or lack of workmanlike effort, all with regard to the SOFTWARE PRODUCT, and the provision of or failure to provide Support Services. ALSO, THERE IS NO WARRANTY OR CONDITION OF TITLE, QUIET ENJOYMENT, QUIET POSSESSION, AND 36 CORRESPONDENCE TO DESCRIPTION OR NON-INFRINGEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE SOFTWARE PRODUCT. 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Gecko Software, Inc. at its discretion may, from time to time, contact you by telephone, fax, email, paper mail, express mail, etc. By agreeing to this EULA and installing this software, you are giving digitally written consent to receive telephone calls from Gecko Software, its affiliates, and associated vendors, and you wave your rights to any laws prohibiting Gecko from contacting you via telephone, fax, email, or any other method preferred by Gecko. DATA DOWNLOAD/DATA CUBE IS DEFINED AS: This is a non-guaranteed service, with no rights or privileges whatsoever, and is only an extension of the service provided by Gecko Software, Inc. for This Product. SUBSCRIPTION BASED DATA DOWNLOAD IS DEFINED AS: Data in which Gecko Software provides by computer transmission services to their subscribing customers. This service is not a guaranteed service, and may be discontinued, off line, or late for any given period or amount of time without warranty or restitution. Data subscription services and fees are a non-refundable, nonguaranteed extension of service provided by Gecko Software Inc., for This Product. Data has been provided from sources believed to be reliable but no guarantee is made as to its accuracy, if/when trading "real" markets do not rely singularly upon This Product for your trading decisions, consult a licensed brokerage firm to confirm ALL decisions and price information. This license does not give any recipient the right to re-transmit or re-distribute this data in any format whatsoever. LIMITATION OF LIABILITY AND REMEDIES Notwithstanding any damages that you might incur for any reason whatsoever (including, without limitation, all damages referenced above and all direct or general damages), the entire liability of Gecko and any of its suppliers under any provision of this EULA and your exclusive remedy for all of the foregoing (except for any remedy of repair or replacement elected by Gecko with respect to any breach of the Limited Warranty) shall be limited to the amount actually paid by you for the SOFTWARE PRODUCT. The foregoing 37 limitations, exclusions and disclaimers described above shall apply to the maximum extent permitted by applicable law, even if any remedy fails its essential purpose. This agreement will be governed by the laws of the state of Utah, excluding the application of its conflicts of law rules. Any litigation under, arising out of, or in any manner related to this agreement must be brought in the Cache County court, in the state of Utah. High Risk Investment Off-exchange foreign currency trading on margin, Futures on Margin, and Stock Trading all carry a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some, all, or even more than your initial investment and, therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose, or take risks beyond your means. You should be aware of all the risks associated with off-exchange foreign currency trading and trading on margin; seek advice from an independent and licensed financial advisor if you have any doubts. Testimonial Disclaimer Unique experiences and past performances do not guarantee future results! Most testimonials are unsolicited and are therefore non-representative of all clients; certain accounts may have worse performance than that indicated. Trading involves substantial risk and there is always the potential for loss. Your trading results may vary. When the risk factor is compounded through leveraged accounts, we suggest that only genuine 'risk' funds should be used in such trading. If you do not have the extra capital that you can afford to lose, you should not trade with leveraged/margin accounts. No 'safe' trading system has ever been devised, and no one can guarantee profits or freedom from loss. Gecko Software does not pay for testimonials, all of our testimonials, although may be solicited, are still voluntary. Gecko Software, Inc. and its associated companies Opinions: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this software is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. Gecko Software, Inc., or its associated firms will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information, products or services. System Failure. Client understands and acknowledges that technical problems or other conditions may delay or prevent GECKO and/or GECKO Customers from receiving software updates. Gecko nor their partners shall not be liable for, and clients agree not to hold or seek to hold Gecko or Gecko Partners liable for any technical problems, system failures, and/or malfunctions, communication line failures, equipment or software failures and/or malfunctions, system access issues, system 38 capacity issues, high Internet traffic demand, security breaches and unauthorized access that are beyond the reasonable control of Gecko or their partners, and/or any other similar computer problems and defects. Gecko and Gecko's Partners agree to use best efforts to maintain the functioning of all system necessary programs, but Gecko nor its partners represent, warrant or guarantee that GECKO and/or GECKO Customers will be able to access or use the Partner Programs at times or locations of GECKO and/or GECKO Customers' choosing, or that Gecko Partners will have adequate capacity for the Gecko and/or Gecko Partner Programs as a whole or in any geographic location. Gecko does not represent, warrant, or guarantee that the Gecko or Gecko Partner Programs will provide uninterrupted and error-free service. Gecko does not make any warranties or guarantees, express or implied, with respect to Gecko or Gecko Partners Programs or their function, including without limitation, warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. Gecko nor their partners shall not be liable for any loss, cost, damage or other injury, whether in contract or tort, arising out of or caused in whole or in part by use of or reliance on the Gecko or Gecko Partner Programs or their content. In no event will Gecko or any Gecko Partner be liable for any punitive, consequential, special, or similar damages even if advised of the possibility of such damage. If some jurisdictions do not allow the exclusion or limitation of liability for certain damages, in such jurisdictions, the liability of Gecko shall be limited in accordance with this Agreement to the extent permitted by law. Gecko reserves the right to suspend service and deny access to any Gecko or Gecko Programs without prior notice during scheduled or unscheduled system maintenance or upgrading. Accuracy of Information The content on Gecko Software & This Products related websites is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make software purchasing decisions, not trading decisions. Gecko Software, Inc. and its associated companies have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the information, however, does not guarantee its accuracy, and will not accept liability for any loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from the content or your inability to access the information, for any delay in or failure of the transmission or the receipt of any instruction or notifications. Distribution This software is not intended for distribution, or use by, any person in any country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. None of the services or investments referred to in this software are available to persons residing in any country where the provision of such services or investments would be contrary to local law or regulation. It is the responsibility of visitor to ascertain the terms of and comply with any local law or regulation to which they are subject. Views, Opinions, and outside links 39 "The views and opinions represented in any link to an outside website links and/or resources are not controlled by Gecko Software or by our associated firms. Further, Gecko Software nor our associated firms are responsible for their availability, content, or delivery of services. DISCLAIMER: THE DATA CONTAINED HEREIN IS BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT CANNOT BE GUARANTEED AS TO RELIABILITY, ACCURACY, OR COMPLETENESS; AND, AS SUCH ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. WE WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ANYTHING, WHICH MAY RESULT FROM RELIANCE ON THIS DATA OR THE OPINIONS EXPRESSED HERE IN. DISCLOSURE OF RISK: THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING STOCKS, FUTURES, FOREX AND OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL; THEREFORE, ONLY GENUINE RISK FUNDS SHOULD BE USED. STOCKS, FUTURES, FOREX AND OPTIONS MAY NOT BE SUITABLE INVESTMENTS FOR ALL INDIVIDUALS, AND INDIVIDUALS SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER THEIR FINANCIAL CONDITION IN DECIDING WHETHER TO TRADE. OPTION TRADERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THE EXERCISE OF A LONG OPTION WOULD RESULT IN A FUTURES OR FOREX POSITION. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO, ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN WITHIN THIS PRODUCT. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. WE ARE NOT RECOMMENDING TO BUY, SELL OR INVEST IN ANY SPECIFIC STOCK, FUTURES, FOREX OR OPTION. THIS PRODUCT WAS DESIGNED FOR EDUCATIONAL AND RESEARCH PURPOSES ONLY. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM, IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES, ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS, IN GENERAL, OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. 40