1
Download TreeAge Pro 2014 User`s Manual
Transcript
36 Individual-Level Simulation and Markov Models 36.8.4 Parallel trials and open/dynamic populations Prior to TreeAge Pro 2008, simulations required the regular pre-specified/fixed number of trials, as well as coherent probabilities. Now, however, dynamic/open populations can be simulated using noncoherent Markov initial and/or transition probabilities and parallel trials. As described in the previous chapter, simulating open/dynamic populations with parallel trials utilizes the same basic approach as dynamic cohort analysis models. Simulation models can utilize noncoherent initial probabilities (to start a certain “number” of individuals in a particular state) and noncoherent transition probabilities (to “inject” an arbitrary number of additional members into any state at any time), provided that parallel trials are run. The tutorial example healthcare tree “Dynamic Population v2008” used to illustrate dynamic cohort models in the previous chapter is shown again here. Dynamic population model To illustrate the use of non-coherent Markov probabilities to model a dynamic/open population, this tree can instead be analyzed using parallel trials simulation. 519
