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SERENE Method Manual
Version 1.0 (F) May 1999
12 Appendix F: BBNs and Bayesian Probability Resources
This section contains the following resources:
• References on Bayesian probability
• References on eliciting probabilities
• Books about BBNs
• Papers about BBNs
• BBN related websites
• BBN tools
• BBN projects
• BBN teaching/learning material on the web
• BBN people
12.1 Probability References
Kahneman D. Slovic P. & Tversky A.(eds). Judgement under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.
Cambridge University Press, (1982).
Lee PM, 'Bayesian Statistics: An Introduction, 2nd Edn' , Arnold, London UK, 1997.
Quite a good account of Bayesian statistics, but still not for the feint hearted (Lindley's book
is better for beginners)
Lindley DV, 'Making Decisions' , John Wiley and Sons, 1985.
Something of a classic book. Argues that Bayesian probability is the natural basis for decision
making in all walks of life.
Wilson A.G. Cognitive Factors Affecting Subjective Probability Assessment. Institute of Statistics
and Decision Sciences Discussion Paper No. 94-02. Duke University, Durham, USA (1994).
Wright G. & Ayton P. (eds). Subjective Probability. John Wiley & Sons Ltd., (1994)
12.2 References on eliciting probabilities
Cooke, R.M. "Experts in Uncertainty. Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science". Oxford
University Press, 1991.
Meyer, M. and Booker, J. "Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgement. A Practical Guide."
Knowledge Based Systems Volume 5. Academic Press, 1991.
12.3 Books about BBNs
Jensen FV, 'An Introduction to Bayesian Networks' , UCL Press, 1996. ISBN 1-85728-332-5 HB.
A reasonable introduction that comes with a demo version of Hugin.
Pearl J, 'Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems' , Morgan Kaufmann, Palo Alto, CA, 1988.
This book contains a thorough, but very hard going, account of BBNs and their propagation
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