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2014 Housing Outlook Seminar
Atlantic Canada Economic and
Housing Outlook
Alex MacDonald, Regional Economist, CMHC
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
HOUSING OUTLOOK SEMINAR FREDERICTON N.B.
Housing market intelligence you can count on
Economic Analysis and Outlook
Presentation Outline
 Economic Analysis and Outlook
 Population and Migration
 Housing Starts Trends and Forecast
 Existing Housing Analysis & Forecast
 Summary of Current Outlook
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
U.S. Housing and Employment Improving but...
Existing Home Sales: Single-Family, (Ths., SAAR)
Housing starts: Single-family privately owned, (Ths., SAAR)
2,000
6,500
1,800
6,000
1,600
5,500
1,400
5,000
1,200
4,500
1,000
4,000
800
3,500
600
3,000
400
2,500
200
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
84
12
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Labor force participation rate: Total, (%, NSA)
Unemployment rate: Total, (%, NSA)
11
69
10
68
9
67
8
66
7
65
6
64
5
63
4
3
62
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Source: U.S Bureau of Labour Statistics , National Association of Home
Builders, National Association of Realtors ® , S.A. : Seasonally Adjusted,
S.A.A.R: Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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As US Yields Rise Canada Rates Will Follow
%
8.0
10-Year Canada
10-Year US
6.0
4.0
2.68US
2.42CD
2.0
0.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: Bank of Canada, US Federal Reserve, Based on Posted Rates, Jan 29, 2014
Source: Bank of Canada, Rates as of Jan 23, 2008, Forecast: CMHC
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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Current CMHC Forecast for Mortgage Rates
10.0
5-Year
3-Year
1-Year
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
One Year Rate Forecast
Five Year Rate Forecast
2014: 3.00 – 3.50
2014: 5.25 – 5.75
2015: 3.75 – 4.25
2015: 5.50 – 6.25
0.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Sources: Bank of Canada, CMHC(Forecast), Based on Posted Rates, Jan 29, 2014
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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Canada: Economic Outlook
 Economic Growth forecast at 2.2 %.
 Employment will grow by 1.5 %.
 Weakness in China or intensification in European
Crisis could negatively impact outlook.
 Income growth expected to continue at a
moderate pace.
 Population aging will continue to impact the
type and tenure of housing in demand.
 Canada should continue to attract a high level
of immigrants.
Source: CMHC, Forecast: CMHC
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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New Brunswick: Economic Outlook

Current economic weakness stems in part from reduced capital
investment and weakness in the natural resources sector.
 Economic growth will be 0.6 % in 2014 and 0.9 % in 2015.

Labour market conditions will remain weak in 2014 as employment
growth is projected to reach 0.5 % in 2014.

By 2015, employment growth is expected to rise 0.8 %.
 The growth prospects for the province continue to be muted by the lack
of population growth and a negative outlook for net-migration.
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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Forecast of Economic Growth for 2014 - 2015
% Change in GDP, Forecast by Province
6.0
5.0
%
5.0
2013
2014
2015
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
1.5
1.8
1.6
1.0
0.8
1.0
1.0
0.6
0.5
0.9
0.0
0.0
Newfoundland-Labrador Prince Edward Island
Nova Scotia
New Brunswick
Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC Forecast, G.D.P. : Gross Domestic Product
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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Employment Outlook for 2014 - 2015
% Change in Employment, Forecast by Province
2.0
1.9
%
2013
1.5
2014
2015
1.2
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.5
0.4
0.0
-0.3
-0.1
-1.0
NewfoundlandLabrador
Prince Edward Island
Nova Scotia
New Brunswick
Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC Forecast
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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New Brunswick Full-Time Employment: 2011 - 2013
310
(000's) S.A.
305
Full-Time Employment
2013 (-0.8%) vs. 2012 (0.5%)
300
295
296.1
Average
290
285
280
275
Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13
Source: Statistics Canada (Labour Force Survey)
S.A.: Seasonally Adjusted, December 2013 ,
Year over Year % Employment Comparison: December 2013 YTD vs. December 2012 YTD
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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Urban Full-Time Employment: 2011 - 2013
Full-Time Employment Growth by City, Atlantic Canada
8%
2011
2012
2013
6%
5.3%
3.9%
4%
2%
0.9%
0%
-1.4%
-2%
-2.7%
-4%
-3.8%
-6%
-8%
-10%
Halifax
Moncton
St. John's
Fredericton
Saint John
Charlottetown
Source: Statistics Canada, 2013 December YTD
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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Average Weekly Earnings by Province: 2011 - 2013
% Change in Weekly Earnings by Province,
Atlantic Canada
9%
8%
2011
2012
2013
7%
6%
5%
4.0%
3.9%
4%
3%
2%
1.8%
1%
0%
-0.1%
-1%
Nova Scotia
New Brunswick
Prince Edward Island Newfoundland-Labrador
Source: Statistics Canada, 2013 December YTD
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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New Brunswick Retail Sales: 2011 - 2013
975
Millions, S.A.
2013 (0.2%) vs. 2012(-0.4%)
955
935
930
Average
915
895
875
855
Jan-2011 May-2011 Sep-2011 Jan-2012 May-2012 Sep-2012 Jan-2013 May-2013 Sep-2013
Source: Statistics Canada
S.A.: Seasonally Adjusted, November 2013
Year over Year % Change in Sales Comparison: November 2013 YTD vs. November 2012 YTD
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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Population and Migration
Presentation Outline
 Economic Analysis and Outlook
 Population and Migration
 Housing Starts Trends and Forecast
 Existing Housing Analysis & Forecast
 Summary of Current Outlook
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
New Brunswick Quarterly Population
Population Declined by 800 in 2013
758
756
755.7
Thousands of People
754
752
750
-0.10%
2013
Average
748
746
744
742
740
738
2004Q1
2005Q1
2006Q1
2007Q1
2008Q1
2009Q1
2010Q1
2011Q1
2012Q1
2013Q1
Source: Statistics Canada
Quarterly Demographic Survey, Fourth Quarter 2013
Year over Year % Change in Population, 2013 vs. 2012
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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New Brunswick Quarterly Net International Migration
Growth Weaker in 2013
1,250
Net movement of people between New Brunswick
and those outside Canada
960
1,000
750
500
250
0
-250
2004Q1
2005Q1
2006Q1
2007Q1
2008Q1
2009Q1
2010Q1
2011Q1
2012Q1
2013Q1
Source: Statistics Canada, Third Quarter 2013
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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New Brunswick Quarterly Net Interprovincial Migration
People continue to leave New Brunswick
1,000
500
Net movement of people between New Brunswick
and the rest of Canada
0
-500
-1,000
-1,500
-1,629
-2,000
-2,500
2004Q1
2005Q1
2006Q1
2007Q1
2008Q1
2009Q1
2010Q1
2011Q1
2012Q1
2013Q1
Source: Statistics Canada, Third Quarter 2013
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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Net Movement of People: 2012 vs. 2013
Alberta and Ontario (Combined)
Net Movement of People
10,000
8,000
7,392
8,199
6,000
5,137
2012
2013
4,709
4,000
2,000
0
-2,000
-2,255
-4,000
-3,490
-6,000
To Alta/Ont
From Alta/Ont
Source: Statistics Canada
Quarterly Demographic Survey
Net Gain/Loss for NB
Data is the total for first three quarters of each year plus
the fourth quarter from the previous year
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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Net Movement of People: 2012 vs. 2013
Alberta (Only)
Net Movement of People
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
3,838
2012
2013
4,474
1,687
2,000
1,672
0
-2,000
-2,151
-4,000
-2,802
-6,000
To Alta
From Alta
Source: Statistics Canada
Quarterly Demographic Survey
Net Gain/Loss for NB
Data is the total for first three quarters of each year plus
the fourth quarter from the previous year
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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Housing Starts Trends and Forecast
Presentation Outline
 Economic Analysis and Outlook
 Population and Migration
 Housing Starts Trends and Forecast
 Existing Housing Analysis & Forecast
 Summary of Current Outlook
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Trend in Urban Starts 10,000+
New Brunswick
3,000
Urban Starts, (6 Month Moving Average, SAAR)
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,209
1,000
935
500
Singles
Multiples
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: CMHC, December 2013, Urban Starts 10,000+
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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Apartment (Rental) Two Bedroom
Vacancy Rate and CMHC Forecast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
City
Calgary
Edmonton
Toronto
Vancouver
Regina
Winnipeg
Saskatoon
Montreal
Ottawa
Halifax
2013
1.0
1.4
1.6
1.7
1.8
2.5
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.2
2014F
1.2 (1)
1.6 (2)
1.8 (3)
2.1 (4)
2.1 (4)
2.8 (7)
2.8 (7)
2.6 (6)
2.3 (5)
4.3 (8)
2015F
1.5 (1)
1.7 (2)
1.8 (3)
2.2 (4)
2.3 (5)
3.0 (8)
2.9 (7)
2.5 (6)
1.8 (3)
4.6 (9)
Source: CMHC, 2013 Fall Rental Survey, CMHC(F), (Ranking)
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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Vacancy Rates Forecast: 2014 - 2015
Vacancy Rate for Structures with 3 Units + by City, Atlantic Canada
14%
2013
2014F
2015F
11.5%
12%
10.5%
9.8%
10%
9.0%
8.0%
8%
7.0%
6%
4%
11.0%
4.3%
6.5%
4.6%
3.5%
3.8%
2%
0%
Halifax
Moncton
St. John's
Fredericton
Saint John Charlottetown
Source: CMHC, Forecast: CMHC
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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Two - Bedroom Average Rent and CMHC Forecast
Higher Increases Expected in Western Canada in 2014 - 2015
City
2013
2014F
2015F
1
Vancouver
$1,281
1.5%
2.3%
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Calgary
Toronto
Edmonton
Ottawa
Saskatoon
Regina
Halifax
Winnipeg
Montreal
$1,224
$1,213
$1,141
$1,132
$1,041
$1,018
$976
$969
$730
4.6%
0.6%
3.0%
1.8%
3.3%
3.1%
1.9%
4.2%
1.4%
3.1%
1.1%
2.1%
1.7%
2.8%
2.4%
2.0%
2.5%
1.4%
Source: CMHC, 2013 Fall Rental Survey, CMHC(F)
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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Units Under Construction: New Brunswick
3,500
3,000
Number of Units Under Construction
at end of each Quarter
2,500
2,000
2,172
Average
1,500
1,000
500
0
2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1
Source: CMHC, Fourth Quarter 2013
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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Quarterly Completions: New Brunswick
2,000
Number of Completions
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
976
Average
800
600
400
200
0
2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1
Source: CMHC, Fourth Quarter 2013
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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Small Urban Centres: Housing Starts in 2013
Housing Starts, by Centre, New Brunswick
Number of Starts
2012
2013
71
80
47
40
20
0
Campbellton
Edmundston
Miramichi
Source: CMHC, December, 2013, Urban Centres 10,000-49,999
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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2014 Forecast and Forecast Range
Canada
Starts
Starts
2012
2013
2014F
20132014
2014F
Forecast
Range
Total
214,827
187,923 187,300
-0.3%
-6% to +7%
Single
83,657
76,893
76,700
-0.3%
-6% to +8%
Multiple
131,170
111,030 110,600
-0.4%
-6% to +6%
Source: CMHC, Forecast: CMHC
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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CMA: Total Starts
CMHC Forecast: 2014 - 2015
City
2013
2014F
2015F
1
Toronto
33,547
-1.9%
-1.8%
2
Vancouver
18,696
-0.5%
-1.1%
3
Montreal
15,632
1.1%
0.6%
4
Edmonton
14,689
-10.1%
-3.8%
5
Calgary
12,584
12.0%
-4.3%
6
Ottawa
6,560
-14.3%
6.7%
7
Winnipeg
4,705
-6.0%
4.0%
8
Regina
3,122
-10.3%
-2.3%
9
Saskatoon
2,980
-2.7%
-1.7%
10
Halifax
2,439
-0.6%
-13.4%
Source: CMHC, (Ranking), CMHC(F), Number of Units
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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2014 Forecast and Forecast Range
Atlantic
Canada
Starts
2012
2013
2014F
20132014
2014F
Forecast
Range
Single
6,865
5,522
5,440
-1.5%
-8% to +7%
Multiple
5,782
4,738
4,260
-10.1%
-16% to -4%
2012
2013
2014F
20132014
2014F
Forecast
Range
Single
1,697
1,376
1,285
-6.6%
-12% to +1%
Multiple
1,602
1,467
1,180
-19.6%
-26% to -14%
Source: CMHC, Forecast: CMHC
New
Brunswick
Starts
Source: CMHC, Forecast: CMHC
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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Single Housing Starts Urban Forecast
1,500
1,250
2013
1,243
1,100
2014F
2015F
1,025
1,000
750
678
625
675
500
318
250
160 145 150
140 140 140
Charlottetown
Saint John
280 260
258 240 230
0
St. John's
Halifax
Fredericton
Moncton
Source: CMHC, Forecast: CMHC
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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Multiple Starts Urban Forecast
2,000
1,800
1,761
1,750
1,500
2013
2014F
2015F
1,425
1,250
1,000
750
500
491
540
653
595
460
278
250
355
190 155
136 130 140
390
260 220
0
St. John's
Halifax
Charlottetown
Saint John
Fredericton
Moncton
Source: CMHC, Forecast: CMHC
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
32
Existing Housing Analysis & Forecast
Presentation Outline
 Economic Analysis and Outlook
 Population and Migration
 Housing Starts Trends and Forecast
 Existing Housing Analysis & Forecast
 Summary of Current Outlook
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
New Brunswick MLS® Sales: 2011 - 2013
650
MLS® Sales
2013 (-1.9%) vs. 2012 (-3.0%)
600
550
Average
522
500
450
400
Jan-2011 May-2011 Sep-2011 Jan-2012 May-2012 Sep-2012 Jan-2013 May-2013 Sep-2013
Source: CREA, Seasonally Adjusted, December 2013
MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
Year over Year % Change in Price Comparison: December 2013 YTD vs. December 2012 YTD
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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Existing Home Sales: 2011 - 2013
10%
2011
2012
2013
5%
0%
-2.0%
-2.9%
-5%
-1.4%
-7.5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-14.0%
-18.0%
Halifax
Moncton
St. John's
Fredericton
Saint John
Charlottetown
Source: CREA , December 2013
MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
2013: December 2013 YTD
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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New Brunswick MLS® Average Price: 2011 - 2013
$172,500
MLS® Average Price
2013 (0.9%) vs. 2012 (0.3%)
$168,337
$165,000
$157,500
$154,253
$150,000
$142,500
Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13
Source: CREA, Seasonally Adjusted, December 2013
MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
Year over Year % Change in Price Comparison: December 2013 YTD vs. December 2012 YTD
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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Urban Average MLS® Sale Price Growth: 2011-2013
12%
2011
2012
2013
10%
8%
6%
5.3%
4%
2%
3.0%
1.5%
1.3%
0%
-1.0%
-1.2%
-2%
-4%
Halifax
Moncton
St. John's
Fredericton
Saint John
Charlottetown
Source: CREA , December 2013
MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
2013: December 2013 YTD
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
37
New Brunswick Market: Buyer’s
MLS® Sales-to-New Listings Ratio, New Brunswick
(Seasonally Adjusted)
75%
70%
65%
Seller’s
60%
55%
50%
Balanced
45%
40%
Buyer’s
35%
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Source: CREA, December 2013
MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
38
2014 Forecast: MLS® Sales and MLS® Prices
Canada
MLS®
2012
2013
2014F
20132014
2014F
Forecast
Range
Sales
454,003
457,485
466,500
2.0%
-5% to +9%
Average
Price
$363,406
$382,543
$390,400
2.1%
-1% to +5%
Sources: CMHC, CREA; Forecast: CMHC
MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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CMA: MLS® Sales
CMHC Forecast: 2014 - 2015
City
2013
2014F
2015F
1
Vancouver
13.9%
2.4%
1.7%
2
Calgary
12.5%
4.5%
2.6%
3
Edmonton
10.8%
1.3%
1.5%
4
Saskatoon
1.5%
2.8%
1.3%
5
Toronto
0.9%
0.6%
1.1%
6
Winnipeg
0.0%
1.3%
1.2%
7
Ottawa
-3.1%
1.1%
1.4%
8
Regina
-6.6%
2.9%
1.3%
9
Montreal
-9.0%
5.4%
3.1%
10
Halifax
-18.0%
2.3%
2.9%
Sources: CREA; Forecast: CMHC
MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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2014 Forecast: MLS® Sales and MLS® Prices
Atlantic
2012
2013
2014F
20132014
2014F
Forecast
Range
Sales
23,104
21,161
20,800
-1.7%
-9% to +5%
$208,952
$210,290
$211,594
0.6%
-2% to +3%
MLS®
Average
Price
Sources: CMHC, CREA; Forecast: CMHC
MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
New
Brunswick
2012
2013
2014F
20132014
2014F
Forecast
Range
Sales
6,403
6,282
6,100
-2.9%
-10% to +4%
$161,116
$162,652
$162,000
-0.4%
-3% to +3%
MLS®
Average
Price
Sources: CMHC, CREA; Forecast: CMHC
MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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Existing Home Sales Urban Forecast
494
475
450
Charlottetown
2013
2014F
2015F
1,869
1,800
1,725
Fredericton
2,194
2,100
2,000
Moncton
1,558
1,525
1,475
Saint John
3,617
3,500
3,450
St. John's
4,986
5,100
5,250
Halifax
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Source: CREA, Forecast: CMHC
MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
42
Urban Average MLS® Price Forecast by Centre
6.0%
2013
5.3%
2014F
2015F
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.6%
1.2%
1.0%
1.5%
1.3%
0.4%
0.7%
0.0%
-0.2%
-0.2% -0.2%
-1.0%
-0.3%
-0.4%
-0.1%
-0.3%
-0.8%
-1.0%
-1.2%
-2.0%
St. John's
Halifax
Charlottetown
Saint John
Fredericton
Moncton
Source: CREA, Forecast: CMHC
MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
43
Summary of Current Outlook
Presentation Outline
 Economic Analysis and Outlook
 Population and Migration
 Housing Starts Trends and Forecast
 Existing Housing Analysis & Forecast
 Summary of Current Outlook
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Canada Outlook: 2014 - 2015

GDP growth is forecast to reach 2.2 % in 2014 and increase
a further 2.5 % in 2015.

Both single and multiple starts are expected to remain near
similar levels in 2014.

Declines in both singles and multiples are forecast to match
the overall moderate slowdown in starts in 2015.

Both existing home sales and prices are expected to rise close
to 2 % in 2014 and 2015.
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
45
New Brunswick Outlook: 2014 - 2015
 GDP growth will reach close to 1 % in 2014 and 2015.

Single starts are expected to decline close to 7 % in 2014 and
a further 5 % in 2015.

Multiple starts are expected to drop close to 20 % in 2014
and a further 11 % in 2015.

Existing home sales should decline 3 % in 2014 and 2015.
 Prices will remain near current levels in 2014 and 2015.
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
46
Thank You
Questions?
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Contact Information
Alex MacDonald
Regional Economist
Email Address:
[email protected]
Phone:
902-426-8964
Disclaimer
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©2013, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. All rights reserved.
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CMHC document must include the source of the information, including statistical data,
acknowledged as follows: “Source: CMHC (or “Adapted from CMHC,” if appropriate), 2014 Housing
Outlook Seminar, Atlantic Canada Economic and Housing Outlook, February 27, 2014.”
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION