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2013 Fredericton Housing Outlook Seminar
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
CLAUDE GAUTREAU, Senior Market Analyst, CMHC
Housing market intelligence you can count on
2012 Highlights – Fredericton CA
Housing Market Drivers
Multi-Residential/Rental Market
New Home Market – Single Family Homes
Resale Market
2013 Outlook
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 2
2012 Housing Market Highlights – Fredericton CA
Rental
Market
Resale
Market
Fourth consecutive year of strong Strongest price growth among
apartment starts
NB’s large urban centres
The number of units under
construction remains near
historically high levels
Ample supply of new listings
Rising vacancy rates
MLS® sales declining
Source: CMHC/The Real Estate Board of the Fredericton Area Inc./CREA
MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 3
2012 Highlights – Fredericton CA
Housing Market Drivers
Multi-Residential/Rental Market
New Home Market – Single Family Homes
Resale Market
2013 Outlook
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 4
Net Migration by County
2006-2011
10,000
8,723
8,000
6,000
4,791
4,000
2,000
0
-2,000
-4,000
-2,745
-6,000
Only 2 counties recorded significant
positive net-migration
Source: Statistics Canada Tax Filer Data
Largest inflows of people were to the
Moncton and Fredericton areas
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 5
International Migration by County
2006-2011
3,500
3,000
2,839
2,500
2,303
2,000
1,725
1,500
York County
recorded the
largest inflow of
international
migration
1,000
500
0
-500
Source: Statistics Canada Tax Filer Data
426
616
The inflow of
international
migrants is
centered around
the areas with
universities
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 6
Provincial Migration to Alberta
500
Alberta continues to
attract people from
New Brunswick
0
-500
Most of the people
leaving are under 45
years of age
Migration slowed
during the
2008/2009
recession
Source: Statistics Canada Tax Filer Data
-1,000
-1,500
-2,000
-2,500
-3,000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011E
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 7
Provincial Migration to Alberta by County
Annual Average 2006-2011 (per 1,000 people)
0
Every county in
New Brunswick
recorded a net
outflow of people
-1
-2
The northern
counties
experienced a
larger outflow than
the provincial
average
Source: Statistics Canada Tax Filer Data
-3
-4
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 8
Net Migration – Greater Fredericton
(York County)
1,500
Net Gain
Since 2001
6,873
1,200
900
600
Average Annual
Gain Since 2001
687
Source: Statistics Canada Tax Filer Data
300
0
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 9
Net-Migration by Age Group (2006-2011)
Greater Fredericton
(York County)
6,000
Approximately
86% of people
relocating to the
Greater
Fredericton area
are under the age
of 45!
4,791
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,470
1,530
1,119
1,000
520
152
0
Source: Statistics Canada Tax Filer Data
0-17 Yrs
18-24 Yrs
25-44 Yrs
45-64 Yrs
65 Yrs +
Total
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 10
Total Employment, Labour Force (000’s) and
Unemployment Rate (%)
70
11%
60
10%
50
9%
40
8%
30
7%
20
6%
10
5%
0
4%
Employment
Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey
Labour Force
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employed/Labour Force (000’s)
Fredericton CA
Unemployment Rate
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 11
Annual Employment Growth
Fredericton CA
10%
7.8%
8%
6%
4%
5.0%
5.2%
4.6%
3.5%
1.7%
2%
0.3%
0%
-0.2%
-0.9%
-2%
-1.3%
-2.9%
-4%
-6%
-4.1%
2001
2002
2003
2004
Average Annual
Increase (2001-2012)
Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey
2005
2006
1.6%
2007
2008
2009
Employed 2012
2010
2011
2012
49,550
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 12
Recent Employment Trends
By Demographic
By Industry
Decreasing
Increasing
Group
% Change
Last 5 Years
Transportation
Construction
Full-Time
- 2.7%
Manufacturing
Trade
Part-Time
+ 3.5%
Public
Administration
15-24
- 2.8%
Finance/Insurance
& Real Estate
25-44
- 3.0%
45-64
+ 0.8%
Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 13
Annual Percentage Change Real Weekly Earnings
Province of New Brunswick
10%
From 2001 to 2012
annual real increase
in weekly earnings
was +0.8%
8%
6%
4.5%
4%
During the same
period, the average
existing home price
rose by 2.9%
annually (adjusted
for inflation
compared to 4.8%
unadjusted)
Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey
2.7% 3.0%
1.7%
2%
0.7% 0.6%
0%
-2%
-0.4%
-0.8%
-1.9%
1.2%
0.1%
-1.6%
-4%
-6%
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 14
2012 Highlights – Fredericton CA
Housing Market Drivers
Multi-Residential/Rental Market
New Home Market – Single Family Homes
Resale Market
2013 Outlook
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 15
Multiple Starts
Fredericton CA
500
391
390
400
352
330
327
324
323
309
300
200
267
204
223
176
129
100
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
10-Year Average in Annual Starts : 311
Source: CMHC
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 16
Multiple Starts as a Percentage of Total Starts
Fredericton CA
100%
80%
60%
40%
42.1%
33.1%
20%
0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Residential construction has not
shifted toward multi-residential units
Source: CMHC
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Single-detached still account for
over half of all housing starts
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 17
Apartment Starts
Fredericton CA
400
310
300
271
239
229
197
200
273
262
196
146
194
143
142
2007
2008
108
100
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2009
2010
2011
2012
10-Year Average in Annual Starts : 215
Source: CMHC
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 18
Rental Starts
Fredericton CA
400
347
315
291
300
266
237
228
225
209
207
200
164
133
122
134
100
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
10-Year Average in Annual Starts : 217
Source: CMHC
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 19
Rental Starts
Fredericton CA
Average Starts
2012
2010
2008
220
1990 – 2012
Two periods with
above-average
activity
268
2009-2012
Strong activity for
four consecutive
years
130
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
Construction tends
to decline when
vacancy rate
increases
101
1994
1992
1990
0
Source: CMHC
100
200
300
400
500
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 20
Rental Market
Fredericton CA
A large number
of apartment units
under construction
is usually
followed by an
increase
in the vacancy rate
Apartment Units Under Construction
400
300
200
100
0
1995
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
6%
4.0%
4%
2%
0%
Source: CMHC
1999
Vacancy Rate
8%
Notable increase in
the vacancy rate in
the fall of 2012
1997
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 21
Vacancy Rate
Fredericton CA
7%
6.5%
6%
4.8%
5%
4%
3.7%
4.3%
4.0%
3%
2%
2.3%
1.3%
2000
2.5%
2010
2011
0.9%
2001
2002
2003
Current Ten-Year
Average: 3.6%
Source: CMHC
2.6%
1.6%
1.5%
1%
0%
4.0%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2012
Could move higher in 2013 due to the number
of apartment units under construction
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 22
Vacancy Rate by Submarket
Fredericton CA
14%
2011
2012
12%
11.1%
10%
8.5%
8%
6%
4.0%
4%
2.5%
2%
0%
Source: CMHC
Fredericton CA
3.6%
1.7%
Southwest
2.3%
3.1%
Northwest
2.0%
Northeast
2.5%
Southeast
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 23
Private Apartment Average Rent ($) by Unit Type
Fredericton CA
$1,200
2011
$1,035
2012
$1,000
$771
$800
$600
$770
$651
$571
$400
$200
$0
Bachelor
One Bed
Two Bed
Three Bed
Total
Estimate of Average Rent Change1 – Oct 2011 to Oct 2012
One Bedroom Units
Two Bedroom Units
Three Bedroom Units
2.9%
3.3%
1.0%
1The
Source: CMHC
Percentage Change of Average Rent is a measure of the market movement, and is based on those structures that were common to the survey sample
for both years.
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 24
Private Apartment Average Rent ($) by Submarket
Fredericton CA
$1,000
2011
The average rent
was higher in most
zones in 2012
The Southwest
zone (downtown
core) posted the
highest average
rent in 2012
2012
$900
$800
$770
$802
$746
$700
$745
$655
$600
$500
$400
Source: CMHC
Fredericton CA
Southwest
Northwest
Northeast
Southeast
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 25
2013 Outlook
Rental Market
Fredericton CA
2012
2013F
% Change
2014F
Vacancy Rate
4.0%
4.3%
0.3 pts
4.8%
Average Rent
$771
$785
+ 2%
$795
(Two Bedroom)
Historically high number of apartment units under construction
during the latter part of 2012
Further increase in the vacancy rate expected in 2013
Expected rent increase in 2013 will range between 1.5% and 2.5%
Source and Forecast: CMHC
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 26
Condominium Starts as a Percentage
of Multiple Starts
Fredericton CA
70%
60%
Condominium starts
as a percentage of
multiple starts have
been trending down
since peaking in
2006
50%
46%
40%
29.2%
30%
22%
21%
20%
17%
10%
10%
0%
0%
30%
30%
0%
0%
0%
0.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
-10%
Source: CMHC
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 27
Condominium Starts by Type
Fredericton CA
120
Apartment
Row
100
80
60
40
20
0
Source: CMHC
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 28
Row Starts – Historical Perspective
Fredericton CA
120
98
100
97
90
85
80
74
64
77
63
60
47
45
40
27
33 32
20
0
Source: CMHC
13
0
1990
0
0
1992
0
0
1994
0
4
1996
4
1998
2000
4
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 29
Percentage of Row Starts for Homeownership
Fredericton CA
100% 100%
100%
88%
79%
75%
63%
56%
51%
50%
28%
25%
0%
Source: CMHC
20%
0%
0%
0%
2000
2001
2002
4%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 30
Semi-Detached Starts
Fredericton CA vs. Moncton CMA
500
450
Fredericton
400
Moncton
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Source: CMHC
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 31
2013 Outlook
Multiple Starts
Fredericton CA
2012
2013F
% Change
2014F
Multiple Starts
267
260
- 3%
220
Continued increase in the rental inventory will put upward pressure
on the local vacancy rate leading to reduced apartment starts
Demand for row units to remain stable
Source and Forecast: CMHC
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 32
2012 Highlights – Fredericton CA
Housing Market Drivers
Multi-Residential/Rental Market
New Home Market – Single
Family Homes
Resale Market
2013 Outlook
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 33
Single-Detached Starts
Fredericton CA
700
600
495
500
415
400
494
419
475
402
356
432
403
387
370
339
367
300
200
100
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Single-detached starts trending down since 2008
Source: CMHC
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 34
Single-Detached Units – Absorbed and Unabsorbed
Fredericton CA
Absorbed Single-Detached
Unabsorbed Single-Detached
Single Starts (12 MMA)
Unabsorbed (12 MMA)
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
Unabsorbed Inventory
Absorbed Inventory
60
Unabsorbed inventory exceeded absorbed inventory in late 2012
Source: CMHC
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 35
Single-Detached Starts by Submarket
Fredericton CA
140
124
2011
2012
120
100
97
98
84
80
60
40
32
35
30
42
39
26
20
0
F'ton City
Source: CMHC
Kingsclear
Lincoln
Saint Mary's
Douglas
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 36
Percentage of Absorbed
Single-Detached Homes > $300,000
Fredericton CA
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2011-2012 : Moderate increase in the share of absorbed
single-detached homes priced above $300,000.
Source: CMHC
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 37
Percentage of Absorbed Single-Detached
Homes by Price Range
Fredericton CA - 2006
50%
40%
Single-Detached
Homes by Price
Range
30%
2006
< $200,000
20%
10%
49%
$200,000 - $300,000
40%
0%
$300,000
11%
Source: CMHC
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 38
Percentage of Absorbed Single-Detached
Homes by Price Range
Fredericton CA - 2012
50%
40%
Single-Detached
Homes by Price
Range
30%
2006
20%
10%
< $200,000
49%
47%
$300,000
11%
Source: CMHC
27%
$200,000 - $300,000
40%
0%
2012
26%
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 39
Average New Home Price
Fredericton CA
$350,000
$300,000
$258,804
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000
$119,056
$100,000
$50,000
$0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Average Annual
Increase +5.8%
Source: CMHC
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Average Two Storey
Price $ 333,388
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 40
Average New Home Price
Moncton CMA/Saint John CMA/Fredericton CA
$400,000
Moncton
$350,000
Saint John
Fredericton
$300,000
Moncton
+ 8.8 %
$250,000
Fredericton
$200,000
+ 1.8 %
$150,000
Saint John
+ 1.1 %
$100,000
$50,000
$0
Source: CMHC
Change in Average
New Home Price
2010-2012
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Greater Moncton
posted the highest
average price in
2012
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 41
2013 Outlook
Single Starts
Fredericton CA
2012
2013F
% Change
2014F
Single Starts
367
340
- 7%
320
The average price of a new home was stable in 2012
The average price in 2013 will be comparable
Reduced demand will lead to fewer starts in 2013
Source and Forecast: CMHC
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 42
2012 Highlights – Fredericton CA
Housing Market Drivers
Multi-Residential/Rental Market
New Home Market – Single Family Homes
Resale Market
2013 Outlook
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 43
New Listings – Historical Perspective
Greater Fredericton
Average New Listings
6,000
5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1980-1989
1990-1999
2000-2012
1,414
2,473
3,918
4,794
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Source: CREA
MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 44
Average Days on Market
Greater Fredericton
120
100
86
85
80
69
60
40
20
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Source: The Real Estate Board of the Fredericton Area Inc./CREA
MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 45
Sales to New Listings Ratio
Greater Fredericton
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Jan-81
Jan-85
Jan-89
Jan-93
Jan-97
Jan-01
Jan-05
Jan-09
Jan-13
A sales to new-listings ratio between 40% and 60% generally
indicates a BALANCED market.
Source: CREA
MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 46
MLS® Unit Sales
Greater Fredericton
3,000
2,448
2,500
1,907
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
334
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Source: CREA
MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 47
MLS® Sales by Submarket
Greater Fredericton
Year-over-Year Change
Fredericton City
Oromocto
Woodstock
- 5.5%
- 5.4%
- 10.9%
2,500
2,000
2011
2012
1,500
1,000
500
0
Fredericton City
Oromocto
Source: The Real Estate Board of the Fredericton Area Inc.
MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
Woodstock
Remainder
Total
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 48
Average MLS® Sale Price
Greater Fredericton
$200,000
$175,000
$150,000
$125,000
$100,000
$75,000
$50,000
$25,000
$0
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
2011 Average MLS® Sale Price
2012 Average MLS® Sale Price
$170,563
$180,485
Source: CREA
MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 49
Annual Price Growth (%)
Greater Fredericton
12%
9.6%
10%
Average %
Change
2000-2012
+ 5.0%
9.5%
7.9%
8%
6%
5.8%
5.0% 5.3%
5.8%
4.6%
4%
3.7%
3.4%
3.3%
2.2%
2%
0%
-0.5%
-2%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: CREA
MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 50
Average MLS® Price by Submarket (000’s)
Greater Fredericton
Year-over-Year
Change in Average
MLS® Sale Price
Greater Fredericton
+ 5.2 %
Fredericton City
$240
2011
2012
$200
$160
$120
+ 4.8 %
Oromocto
+ 0.2 %
Woodstock
+14 %
$80
$40
$0
Greater F'ton
Source: The Real Estate Board of the Fredericton Area Inc.
MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
F'ton City
Oromocto
Woodstock
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 51
MLS® Sales by Price Range
Greater Fredericton
2,500
2011
2012
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Source: The Real Estate Board of the Fredericton Area Inc.
MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 52
Share of MLS® Sales by Price Range
Greater Fredericton
Single Only
Single/Condo/Mini/Semi
$400 plus
$300K-$400K
$250K-$300K
$200K-$250K
$150K-$200K
$0-$150K
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Greater Fredericton Area
Single-Detached Only – Fredericton City
60% MLS® Sales < $200,000
45% MLS® Sales < $200,000
Source: The Real Estate Board of the Fredericton Area Inc.
MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 53
Percentage Change in MLS® Sales by Price Range
Greater Fredericton
40%
34.5%
30%
Largest
increase in
MLS® sales
occurred in the
$300,000 $400,000 price
range
20%
13.4%
10%
0%
-3.8%
-10%
-20%
-14.4%
-16.5%
-3.4%
-17.6%
-30%
Source: The Real Estate Board of the Fredericton Area Inc.
MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 54
Resale Market Classification
Greater Fredericton
Current Conditions – Resale Market
MLS® Sales
Decreasing
Balanced towards Buyer’s
New Listings
Stable
Balanced
Sales to New
Listings Ratio
Decreasing
Balanced towards Buyer’s
Price Growth
Stable
Balanced
Days on Market
Increasing
Balanced towards Buyer’s
Greater Fredericton
Source: CMHC/The Real Estate Board of the Fredericton Area Inc./CREA
MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
BALANCED
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 55
2012 Highlights – Fredericton CA
Housing Market Drivers
Multi-Residential/Rental Market
New Home Market – Single Family Homes
Resale Market
2013 Outlook
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 56
2013 Outlook
Annual Transactions – New and Existing Home
Greater Fredericton
(Semi-detached + Row + Single-detached + MLS® Sales)
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
1980-1989
1990-1999
2000-2012
934
1,288
2,379
Source : CMHC/CREA
MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
2010
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 57
2013 Outlook
Resale Market
Fredericton CA
2012
2013F
% Change
2014F
MLS® Sales
1,907
1,850
- 3%
1,800
$180,485
$182,000
+1%
$181,500
Average
Price
Balanced market conditions to remain in 2013
Decline in existing homes sales expected in both 2013 and 2014
Moderate price increase expected in 2013
Source: The Real Estate Board of the Fredericton Area Inc./CREA
MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
Forecast: CMHC
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2013 Outlook
Housing Starts
Fredericton CA
2012
2013F
% Change
2014F
Total Starts
634
600
- 5%
540
Single Starts
367
340
- 7%
320
Multiple Starts
267
260
- 3%
220
Large number of apartment units under construction at the end of
2012 will lead to fewer multiple starts in 2013
Last year’s decline in single-detached construction to extend into
2013 with another decline in single starts
Source and Forecast: CMHC
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 59
Thank You
Questions?
www.cmhc.ca
or
Call Claude Gautreau
at (506) 851-2742
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 60