Download VALE 2000 Users` Manual - 2002 update

128
Part IV
Reference
instances. The Census Bureau has now corrected its Table 4, and has incorporated
the computation for this age group in Table 2 for all years on its web site.
•
Extend Probabilities Through 89 – The previous version stopped computation of
probabilities at the age of 74 (taking the person to his or her 75th birthday). This limit
arose primarily from the fact that the Census cross-tabulations stopped at this age.
Since the current edition relies upon extracts from the CPS public use data files, we
can extend these probabilities through the age of 89 (to the person’s 90th birthday).
As one would expect, the impact of this extension is more significant for older
workers.
•
Extend CPS Pooling to 10 Years – Probabilities of participation and employment
for the previous version were derived by pooling CPS statistics for six years (1992 –
1997). This edition extends this another four years, through 2001. All four added
surveys took place during a prolonged strong economy for the United States.
(Remember, the 2001 survey took place in March of 2001, before the economic
downturn.) As a result, the probabilities and resulting worklife expectancies show
material increases. This is most observable for those with a not severe work
disability. This is to be expected. In an economy approaching full employment,
employers are more likely to hire persons whom they otherwise might have excluded
– including those with work disabilities. The impact of the 2002 CPS (not yet
available at time of publication), taken during increased unemployment, should
provide fodder for interesting analyses.
Previous Version
Update Life Tables
Adjust 93 CPS Weights
Census Error for Seniors
Extend Probabilities Through 89
Extend CPS Pooling for 10 Years
Current Version
Not Disabled
Disabled, Not Sev
Years
% Chg.
Years
% Chg.
28.5
19.8
0.1
0.4%
0.0
0.0%
0.1
0.4%
-0.1
-0.5%
0.1
0.4%
0.5
2.5%
0.3
1.1%
0.2
1.0%
0.6
2.1%
1.1
5.6%
29.7
4.2%
21.5
8.6%
Figure 61 Components in Change from Previous Version
25-Year-Old Female
Life Table
Figure 62 presents the life survivors data used to compute the probability of life component
of LPE model for worklife expectancy. For a detailed description of the computation
process, see page 121.