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Transcript
Model Calibration
546
Calibration,
Parameters,
Stochastic Modeling
Calibration
Model Calibration
Automated Parameter Estimation
Parameter Estimation Dialog
PEST
Run Options
Observations
Plot Wizard
Calibration Targets
Parameters
Parameters
Parameter Dialog
Pilot Points
Multiplier Arrays for Parameters
Standard MODFLOW Parameters
Stochastic Modeling
Stochastic Modeling
Gaussian Field Generator
Risk Analysis Wizard
T-PROGS
Calibration is the process of modifying the input parameters to a groundwater model until the output from the model
matches an observed set of data. GMS includes a suite of tools to assist in the process of calibrating a groundwater
model. Both point and flux observations are supported. When a computed solution is imported to GMS, the point and
flux residual errors are plotted on a set of calibration targets and a variety of plots can be generated showing overall
calibration statistics. Most of the calibration tools can be used with any of the models in GMS. Automated Parameter
Estimation is supported for MODFLOW models via PEST.
Two types of observations can be defined in GMS: point observations and flow observations. Both types of
observations are defined in the map module and are associated with points, arcs, and polygons. Point observations
represent locations in the field where some value has been observed. In most cases, the points will correspond to
observation wells and the value will be the elevation of the groundwater table (the head). Flow observations
represent linear or areal objects such as streams and reservoirs where the gain or loss between the aquifer and the
object has been measured or estimated. Both point and flow observations can be assigned a confidence interval or
calibration target. While point observations can be used with any model, flow observations can only be used with
MODFLOW.
Once a set of observed point and flow values has been entered, each time a model solution is imported, GMS
automatically interpolates the computed solution to the observation points. For some models (MODFLOW) the
model outputs the computed values at the observation points. Also, MODFLOW outputs the computed flow for the
flow observations. A calibration target representing the magnitude of the residual error is displayed next to each
observation point and each flow object as shown below. The size of the target is based on the confidence interval or