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Chapter 11: Using the Endpoint Database Syncopation Software You can also play endpoints to generate an Initial Decision Alternatives Risk Profile. You will do this now. Make sure Risk Profile and Init Dec Alts is checked. Run a Full Tree Enumeration from Endpoints. Also check Policy Tree™ and Policy Summary™ (for comparison with the results of the next sub-section of this tutorial). DPL quickly creates an Initial Decision Alternatives Risk Profile for the energy case, as shown in Figure 11-15. You can see from this Risk Profile that the two initial decision alternatives have very similar risk profiles and that neither alternative is substantially riskier than the other. There is little reason for the decision maker not to choose the initial alternative with higher expected value, which is High Initial Upstream Investment. Figure 11-15. Initial Decision Alternative Risk Profile from playing Endpoints 324
